The negotiations in the period up to COP15
Even though there is agreement among the parties behind the UNFCCC that a 鈥渟hared vision鈥 should be drawn up for how climate change is to be tackled,there is still disagreement as to what this vision is to contain.
Ministry of Climate and Energy of Denmark
The meetings in the AWG-LCA working group show that the parties still have differing opinions as to what a future agreement should contain.However,with the Bali Action Plan,all countries agreed that a future agreement should be based on a long-term shared vision and four building blocks:increased mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; adaptation to climate change; technology transfers and development; and financing.
There are still ongoing negotiations about the specific content of each individual building block.For example there is discussion about the extent to which one should supplement long-term targets for reductions with short and medium-term targets.Ambitious long-term targets,which for example extend several decades into the future,risk becoming a pretext for inaction in the intervening years,and this will be contrary to the ambitions of the Bali Action Plan,which are to speed up the conversion process towards a more sustainable future.
Technology transfer and the financing of a future agreement,especially the level and form of financial support for developing countries,are also central questions in the negotiations.
Apart from the four building blacks a range of concrete tools to reduce emissions are discussed.For example how a future agreement can contribute to a reduction of deforestation.The felling of forests strengthens the greenhouse effect,so in principle an initiative either against felling or in support of the planting of more forests could have a positive effect on the quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The conservation of forests is not at present one of the possible projects for a Clean Development Mechanism,but with pressure increasing on the world鈥檚 remaining forests,there are groups that argue that it should be included.
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
The goals of the climate change convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes.
Ministry of Climate and Energy of Denmark
In 1990,the United Nations General Assembly decided to start work on a climate change convention.The endeavors led to 154 countries signing the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) at the UN Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.Since then,193 countries including the USA have ratified the convention.
The goals of the climate change convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes.
According to the objective paragraph,this stabilization must occur in such a way as to give ecosystems the opportunity to adapt naturally.This means that food safety must not be compromised,and that the potential to create sustainable social and economic development must not be endangered.
Each year,a Conference of the Parties is held,where the countries which have ratified the convention meet and discuss how the convention鈥檚 goals can be implemented in practice.One of the tools,which the parties have agreed upon,is the Kyoto Protocol.
The climate change convention is administered by the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn.The secretariat鈥檚 tasks include monitoring the development in the individual countries鈥 CO2 emissions,as well as keeping watch on which countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol.(Photo:Scanpix/Reuters)
COP President:Progress has been made
Having reached its halfway point,the UN climate conference in Copenhagen has advanced on texts on green technology transfer to developing countries and on the mechanisms to promote the use of forests to assimilate emissions,say delegates.
AP/Marianne Bom
12/12/2009 16:15
The President of the UN climate conference,Connie Hedegaard (photo above),made a midway status on the conference on Saturday,saying that "we have made considerable progress over the course of the first week".
According to delegates,negotiators have advanced on texts on how to supply new green technologies 鈥 like wind and solar power 鈥 to developing nations.Progress has also been made in promoting use of forests to soak up carbon dioxide,Reuters reports.
But there are still deep splits on issues such as raising funds for developing countries and sharing out the burden of greenhouse gas emissions curbs.
On Saturday,industrial countries criticized a draft climate agreement,submitted Friday,for not making stronger demands on major developing countries.
It became clear that initial reactions to the negotiating draft had underscored the split between the US-led wealthy countries and countries still struggling to overcome poverty and catch up with the modern world.
US delegate Jonathan Pershing said the draft failed to address the contentious issue of curbing carbon emissions by emerging economies.
"The current draft didn't work in terms of where it is headed," Pershing said in the plenary,supported by the European Union,Japan and Norway.
Environment ministers started arriving in the Danish capital Saturday for informal talks before world leaders join the summit at the end of the coming week.
What consequences can we expect,and what can we do?
Many of the effects of global warming have been well-documented.It is the precise extent that is difficult to predict.
Ministry of Climate and Energy of Denmark
Predicting the consequences of global warming is one of the really difficult tasks for the world鈥檚 climate researchers.Firstly,because the natural processes that cause precipitation,storms,increases in sea level and other expected effects of global warming are dependent on many different factors.Secondly,because it is difficult to predict the size of the emissions of greenhouse gases in the coming decades,as this is determined to a great extent by political decisions and technological breakthroughs.
Many of the effects of global warming have been well-documented,and observations from real life are very much consistent with earlier predictions.It is the precise extent that is difficult to predict.Among the effects that can be predicted are:
More droughts and more flooding:
When the weather gets warmer,evaporation from both land and sea increases.This can cause drought in areas of the world where the increased evaporation is not compensated for by more precipitation.The extra water vapor in the atmosphere has to fall again as extra precipitation,which can cause flooding other places in the world.
Less ice and snow:
Glaciers are shrinking rapidly at present.The trend is for the ice to melt faster than estimated in the IPCC鈥檚 latest report.In areas that are dependent on melt water from mountain areas,this can cause drought and a lack of drinking water.According to the IPCC,up to a sixth of the world鈥檚 population lives in areas that will be affected by this.
More extreme weather incidents:
The warmer climate will most probably cause more heatwaves,more cases of heavy rainfall and also possibly an increase in the number and/or severity of storms.
Rising sea level:
The sea level rises for two reasons.Partly because of the melting ice and snow,and partly because of the thermal expansion of the sea.Thermal expansion takes a long time,but even an increase in temperature of two degrees Celsius is expected,in due time,to cause a rise in the water level of almost a metre.
In order to get an idea of the extent of the consequences,researchers typically work with scenarios that show various possible developments.