While I would be reluctant to make a forecast myself,I would rate the probability that the imf gets its 2007 forecast even remotely right lower than the probability of a severe economic shock during the forecast horizon.
虽然我自己不愿进行预测,但我认为,imf的2007年预测即便勉强准确的几率,也低于当年出现一次严重经济冲击的几率.