Question

设某厂有甲乙丙三条流水线生产同一种产品,产量分别占15％,80％,5％；次品率分别为0.02,0.01和0.03；三条流

Answer 1

（1）P(A1)=0.15

P(A2)=0.8

P(A3)=0.05

(2)条件概率

P(D|A1)=P(DA1)/P(A1)=0.15*0.02/0.15=0.02

P(D|A2)=0.01

P(D|A3)=0.03

(3)从库房取到了一件次品的概率P(D)=0.15*0.02+0.8*0.01+0.05*0.03=0.0125

(4)已知从库房取到了一件次品,求它来自第3条流水线的概率

P(A3|D)=P(DA3)/P(D)=0.05*0.03/0.0125 =0.12

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