1、P(b=2)=∑P(b=2|Ai)*P(Ai).i=1,2,3,4
P(b=2)=1/4*0+1/4*1/2+1/4*1/3+1/4*1/4=13/48
2、P(A=3|b=2)=(1/4*1/3)/(13/48)=4/13
楼上错解