(1)将A标示为0,A1、B、D标示为1,B1、C、D1标示为2,
C1标示为3,从A跳到B记为01,从B跳到B1再跳到A1记为121,其余类推.
从0到1与从3到2的概率为1,从1到0与从2到3的概率为[1/3],
从1到2与从2到1的概率为[2/3].
跳三步跳到C1的概率:
P=P(0123)=1×[2/3]×[1/3]=[2/9]; …4′
(2)由题设知X=0,1,2.
P(X=1)=P(010123)+P(012123)+P(012321)
=1×[1/3×1×
2
3×
1
3]+1×[2/3×
2
3×
2
3×
1
3]+1×[2/3×
1
3×1×
2
3]
=[26/81],
P(X=2)=P(012323)=1×[2/3×
1
3×1×
1
3]=[6/81],
P(X=0)=1-P(X=1)-P(X=2)=[49/81],
∴X的分布列为:
X 0 1 2
p [49/81] [26/81] [6/81]∴E(X)=1×[26/81]+2×[6/81]=[38/81].…10′