The daily newspaper
will not--not--disappear
If you want to see a newspaperman sweat,mention the dramatic declines in newspaper purchasing among young people.
In recent years the number of young people spending money on newspapers has fallen precipitously,a development attributable to factors including 24-hour cable news and the internet.
Seeing as neither of those is going away,the question becomes:How low will readership fall?
Low enough to kill off newspapers as we know them within a generation or two as the non-reading kids of today become the non-reading adults of tomorrow?
More than one media analyst thinks it will.
But a leading statistician disagrees,having just completed an analysis of consumer and demographic data that suggests that newspaper purchasing will level off at rates higher than previously thought.
Peter Francese,the founder of American Demographics magazine,conducted the study of newspaper buying habits among youth for the Ottaway Newspaper Group,which distributes his newspaper column.
From 1985 to 1995,the percentage of households 25-34 that purchased a newspaper during a two-week period fell from 63 to 56 percent,a decrease of 11 percent over the decade.
By 2000,that figure had fallen to 35 percent.With young people’s attention being siphoned off by internet and cable news,purchasing of newspapers in that demo plummeted 37.5 percent in just five years’ time.
But while it’s true that in recent years youth purchasing levels have fallen dramatically,Francese says,demographic data suggests that it won’t hit disastrously low levels.
“Based on mobility data and other data about marriages and births,there’s a floor to newspaper purchasing,probably around one third,” Francese says.
“When you put it all together,there’s tremendous mobility in that demo,but there’s still a base of people that act in very conventional ways.”
Arnold Kling,an economist and columnist for the website Tech Central Station,predicts that young people will continue to favor other news sources in the future.
“I don’t think there’s much of a floor there,” says Kling.“At that point,who knows what the technology will be,but I’m guessing that newspapers will be more of a nostalgia thing for people who remember when the New York Times was the New York Times.”
Extrapolation from the above data,Kling says,shows that today’s 25-34 year olds will spend only half as much on newspapers in twenty years as today’s 50 year olds do now.
“Presumably purchasing by 25-34 year olds will only go up from here on out,because as they get older they’ll buy more papers,” Kling says.“The problem is that it won’t get up to levels of the current 50 year olds.”
This halving of newspaper purchasing,Kling says,will force many newspapers out of business,though he predicts they will still be around as philanthropic enterprises.
Francese responds that this extrapolation is not valid,because predictions based on current purchasing of newspapers by 25-34 year olds fail to take into account significant demographic factors that suggest the newspaper will remain popular in the future.
For one thing,Francese says,research shows that people age 25-34 are the most mobile demographic,and people don’t start subscribing to a newspaper until they’ve lived in a community for four or five years.
Another key reason for newspapers’ resilience,Francese suggests,is that the vast majority of newspapers in the country are small local papers that serve a unique function in the community.
“They deliver something that people want and deliver to most households in small communities something that local advertisers want very much,which is a relatively inexpensive way to reach most households on a daily basis,” Francese says.
Besides,Francese says,the newspaper business can survive significant drops in consumer purchasing because approximately 80 percent of newspaper revenue comes from advertising.
Even a 50 percent decline in circulation revenue overall,which Francese deems unlikely,would be only a ten percent decline in total revenue.
Falling interest in newspapers on the part of young people is a serious problem,Francese says,but he predicts newspapers will nevertheless have a place in the media of the foreseeable future.
“The concept that a 50 percent decline will drive newspapers out of business is ludicrous,” he says.