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WHY CIVILIZATIONS WILL CLASH
Civilization identity will be increasingly important in the future,and the world will be shaped in large measure by the interactions among seven or eight major civilizations.These include Western,Confucian,Japanese,Islamic,Hindu,Slavic-Orthodox,Latin American and possibly African civilization.The most important conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating these civilizations from one another.
Why will this be the case?
First,differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic.Civilizations are differentiated from each other by history,language,culture,tradition and,most important,religion.The people of different civilizations have different views on the relations between God and man,the individual and the group,the citizen and the state,parents and children,husband and wife,as well as differing views of the relative importance of rights and responsibilities,liberty and authority,equality and hierarchy.These differences are the product of centuries.They will not soon disappear.They are far more fundamental than differences among political ideologies and political regimes.Differences do not necessarily mean conflict,and conflict does not necessarily,mean violence.Over the centuries,however,differences among civilizations have generated the most prolonged and the most violent conflicts.
Second,the world is becoming a smaller place.The interactions between peoples of different civilizations are increasing; these increasing interactions intensify civilization consciousness and awareness of differences between civilizations and commonalities within civilizations.North African immigration to France generates hostility among Frenchmen and at the same time increased receptivity to immigration by "good" European Catholic Poles.Americans react far more negatively to Japanese investment than to larger investments from Canada and European countries.Similarly,as Donald Horowitz has pointed out,"An Ibo may be ...an Owerri Ibo or an Onitsha Ibo in what was the Eastern region of Nigeria.In Lagos,he is simply an Ibo.In London,he is a Nigerian.In New York,he is an African." The interactions among peoples of different civilizations enhance the civilization-consciousness of people that,in turn,invigorates differences and animosities stretching or thought to stretch back deep into history.