而9.69的值小于19.68,说明卡方检验的预测值时可以接受的.
And the value of 9.69 is smaller than 19.68,which means the forecast value of the Chi-square test is acceptable.
因为预测销售量与实际销售量之间存在差异,且预测值低于实际值,所以要通过调试K和B来使得预测销售量是实际销售量更加接近.
For there are differences between the forecast sales and actual sales,and the forecast value is lower than the actuallue,therefore it needs to go through the debugging of the K and B' value to make the forecast sales and the actual sale more close to each other.
由于检测中得到的第五年的预测值与实际值存在偏差,为了让预测销售量与实际销售量更加接近,所以决定调整K和B的值以降低MAE和MSE的值.
For there was difference from the testing of the 5th year's forecast sales and the actual sales.In order to make the forecast sales more close to the actual sales,so I decided to adjust the value of K and B to lower the value of the MAE and MSE.
无论是当α=0.2还是α=0.5时多算出来的值都大于卡方值,说明卡方检验的预测值时不可以接受的.通过对指数平滑法和简单平滑法进行比较发现,当使用指数平滑法时得到的预测值是卡方检验可以接受的,而简单平滑法计算出的预测值时卡方检验所不能接受的,所以使用指数平滑法来计算更好.
No matter whether a=0.2 or a=0.5,the calculated values mostly would be bigger / higher than the Chi-square values,which demonstrates that the forecast values of the Chi-square test would not be unacceptable.Through the comparison of the exponential smoothing method and the simple smoothing method,we found that when using of the exponential smoothing method,the obtained forecast value would be acceptable by the Chi-square test,and when using of the simple smoothing method,the obtained forecast value would not be acceptable by the Chi-square test.Therefore,it would be better to use the exponential smoothing method for the calculation.
通过观察预测销售量和实际销售量的线基本吻合,但是MAE和MSE的值仍比较大所以通过调试K和B的值来降低MAE和MSE的值
Through observation,the forecast sales and the actual sales were basically concided,but the values of K and B were still a bit too high,so it needs to debug the values of K and B to lower the values of the MAE and MSE.
通过观察预测销售线上的点普遍高于实际销售线上的点.所以需要调试K和B的值使其更加的接近.
Through observation,the points on the forecast sales line,which were generally higher than those points on the actual sales line,so the value of K and B need to be debugged to make them closer to each other.